Without looking at an engine, which side is better?

@Dr_King_Schultz A0 is not available obviously so I ran it with LC0. My laptop does not have huge GPU so you have about 3 million simulation has to be enough. Early phases of simulation give win probability of about 50% but then drop to around 30%. Interestin the second choice if giving away bishop to open up the deadlock

HALTED Nodes: 3.9M, N/s: 11.4k, Time: 5m 39s

28.5% b4 O-O-O b5 Na5 Qd4 Qxb5 Qxa7 b6 Ne2 Nc6 Nd4 Nxa7 Nxb5 Nxb5 a4 Na7 a5 b5 g3 Kb7 a6+ Kb6 f4 c5 h4 h5 Bg2 Ne7 O-O Nec6 f5 gxf5 exf5 Bf7 f6 Ne5 Rf5 Re8 Be4 Bh6 Kg2 Nc8 Rf1 Nd6 a7 Nxe4 a8=Q Rxa8 Rxa8 Bxd2 Bxd2 Nxd2 (N: 2.9M, P: 11.05%)
27.6% Be2 Bd6 Bg4 O-O-O h3 Nh6 Qf6 Nxg4 hxg4 Rf8 Qh4 Bxg4 Qxh7 Qe6 Qg7 Qe8 O-O Qd8 e5 Nxe5 Re1 Be2 Nxe2 Qh4 Ng3 Ng4 (N: 219k, P: 2.62%)
27.5% Bxd3 Qxd3 Qxh7 Ne5 f4 O-O-O Qh4 Nc4 f5 gxf5 exf5 Re8 Qd4 Bxf5+ Kf2 Nh6 Rf1 Qxd4+ cxd4 Bd3 Re1 Ng4+ Kf3 Rxe1 Kxg4 Kd7 b3 Nb6 (N: 179k, P: 4.88%)
26.8% f3 O-O-O b4 Qf7 b5 Na5 e5 Nc4 Ne4 Bf5 Ng3 Bc5 Kd1 Be6 Ne4 Be7 h4 h6 h5 (N: 77.4k, P: 9%)
26.4% b3 Bd6 Nf5 gxf5 exf5 Bd5 Bxd3 O-O-O f6 Qe6+ Kd1 Nxf6 Qg7 Rg8 Qh6 Rxg2 Re1 Qf7 Kc2 Ng4 Qxh7 Qxh7 (N: 71.2k, P: 10.62%)
27.1% a4 O-O-O b4 Qf7 b5 Na5 f3 Nb3 Rb1 Bc4 e5 Re8 Ne4 Bg7 Qxh7 Rxe5 Qh3+ Kb8 Ba3 Nf6 (N: 60.4k, P: 4.3%)
27.5% Ne2 Bd6 f4 O-O-O g3 Bc5 f5 dxe2 Bxe2 gxf5 d3 fxe4 d4 Nxd4 cxd4 Bxd4 Bg5 Bxh8 Rd1 Qxd1+ Bxd1 (N: 59.7k, P: 1.87%)
25.9% f4 O-O-O b4 Qf7 Bxd3 Rxd3 O-O Be7 e5 a5 a3 Kb8 Ne4 Bc4 Ng5 Bxg5 fxg5 Qe7 Rf4 Be6 h4 Qd7 (N: 53.2k, P: 10.43%)
27.0% Rb1 O-O-O b4 Qf7 b5 Na5 f3 Nc4 e5 Qf4 Ne4 Nxe5 Kf2 Be7 Kg1 Bd5 (N: 44.1k, P: 3.81%)
26.4% e5 O-O-O b3 Nh6 Qf6 Ng4 Qf4 Bc5 Ne4 Rf8 Qg3 Bxf2+ Nxf2 Nxf2 Rg1 Rf5 Ba3 b6 Bb2 Nxe5 c4 Neg4 h3 Qe7 hxg4 Nxg4 (N: 33.8k, P: 5.15%)
25.5% h4 O-O-O h5 h6 f4 Qf7 f5 gxf5 exf5 Bxa2 b4 Bd6 Rh3 Be5 Ne4 Bxh8 Ng3 Bf6 Rxa2 Qxa2 (N: 31.5k, P: 7.24%)
26.4% h3 O-O-O b4 Qf7 Bxd3 Rxd3 O-O Nf6 Re1 Ne5 Re3 Bc4 f4 Ned7 e5 Nd5 Rxd3 (N: 26.3k, P: 3.89%)
25.5% a3 O-O-O b4 Qf7 Bb2 Bc4 a4 Nf6 f3 Ne5 f4 Neg4 e5 Nd5 h3 Qxf4 (N: 16.6k, P: 3.73%)
25.0% Rg1 O-O-O b4 Qf7 f3 Nf6 a4 Ne5 Nh1 g5 Nf2 g4 f4 Ng6 Qxf6 (N: 12.5k, P: 3.27%)
24.0% c4 O-O-O Rb1 Nb4 b3 Bg7 Qxh7 Nf6 Qxg6 Nc2+ Kd1 Ng4 Bb2 Nxf2+ Kc1 Bxb2+ Rxb2 Nxh1 Nxh1 Rf8 Ng3 Rf2 Rxc2 (N: 8.3k, P: 2.85%)
22.6% Kd1 O-O-O b4 Nxb4 cxb4 Bg7 Qxh7 Qa4+ Ke1 Bxa1 Qxg6 Qxa2 f3 Ne7 Qg5 Nc6 Kf2 Bd4+ Ke1 Nxb4 (N: 6.4k, P: 2.83%)
11.6% Nf5 gxf5 exf5 Bf7 Qxh7 Qe7+ Kd1 O-O-O Qh3 Ne5 b3 Nf6 Bb2 Neg4 (N: 1.4k, P: 1.79%)
5.8% Qxg8 Bxg8 Bxd3 Qxd3 Nh5 gxh5 f3 Qa6 a3 Qd3 (N: 1.2k, P: 2.07%)
5.7% Qd4 Nxd4 cxd4 Qxd4 a3 O-O-O b3 Qxa1 f3 Qxc1+ (N: 1.2k, P: 2.06%)
11.4% Nh5 gxh5 b4 O-O-O b5 Na5 Qd4 Qxb5 Qxa7 Nc6 Qa8+ Kd7 a4 Qc4 (N: 1.2k, P: 1.54%)
5.8% Qe5 Nxe5 Rg1 Qb5 a3 Qb3 Ra2 Qxa2 b3 Qb1 (N: 878, P: 1.5%)
6.2% Qxh7 Qxh7 Bxd3 Bh6 Ke2 O-O-O a3 Qd7 Ra2 Qxd3+ Kd1 Bxa2 (N: 739, P: 1.24%)
5.1% Qf6 Nxf6 h4 Nd8 Rh2 Nc6 a3 Na5 Ra2 Bxa2 (N: 701, P: 1.24%)
4.4% Qg7 Bxg7 Rg1 Na5 a3 Nb3 Ra2 Qa4 f3 Nc5 (N: 562, P: 1.02%)

Oh no, the engines are here. The position's been spoiled.

Well that should do it for the thread. Thanks for all your thoughts guys.

Exactly blind man. Engines are terrible for chess improvement.

Whether or not white is objectively better, I'd rather play black. It's just too ugly for white. I don't see how to continue (although I haven't looked deeply at the position).

Of course, if it were a tournament setting, I would play it out for a while to see if I could make anything of the position. I have serious doubts about white's chances though. I simply don't see how to continue the game. I'd need to look deeper into the position.

Thx @hairbeRt for checking my hypothesis about Leela's assessment - I'm afraid we killed the thread with this, though. :s
Sorry for that!

@tpr Is that a typo in post #10?

#15 No I sincerely believe white should win this. White enjoys a substantial material advantage. The plan is to give back the material restoring the material balance and retain a sufficient positional advantage to win the endgame.

Both of whites bishops are out of the game, so pretty much the rooks as well. And whites queen is nearly trapped. I’d much rather be black here

Basically white needs to be able to take the pawn on d3, and it’s hard enough to save the queen